CRUSUS An Educational, Research and Business Consulting Network oriented to Sustainability RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE PROJECT Risk Evaluation for Projects considering Sustainability Concerns due to Climate Change - The Oil Shale Case Analysis   Wilson Jordão Filho 15.4.2010 This paper tentatively shows through a semi-qualitative approach the consequences over the risk analysis currently applied to new project  implementation. Changes on business framework are now under way  due to the worldwide adoption of sustainability principles stimulated  by threats from climate change. The moving from the former BAU  (Business as Usual) to a SD (Sustainable Development) based  scenario may provide an impressive amount of adaptations to current risk analysis for new projects. Likelihood and impacts for most of selected items of project  vulnerability are moved up to different scores defining higher risks  with increasing efforts for risk mitigation. The risk management then  becomes a much more time and cost consuming task along all  project stages of implementation deriving a total expenditure which  is a much higher percentage of total project investment cost than  before. Therefore business activities as well as economy are to be  penalized for that reflecting on living standards and costs of products and services. It is not a surprise if one identifies that all costs (expenditures) related to the measures for the risk  management of an Oil & Gas project comply with SD principles could duplicate or even triplicate as  compared to previous BAU scenario costs. A sample project in Oil & Gas category is herein exhibited - The Oil Shale Project - which is in course  of the beginning for worldwide exploration due to the depletion of crude oil reserves. The Oil Shale  project involves mining and industrial parts forming a complex to produce shale oil and by-products  from the oil shale ore using a few patent processes. Oil shale reserves are abundant on a few countries, namely US, Brazil, Estonia, Morocco, China and Jordan. As cost of production of shale oil is yet very  high the postponement of the oil shale exploration era has been inevitable but now first efforts are  taking place with the barrel reaching the barrier of US$ 80.  This example reflects and endorses the UNFCCC and IPCC statements in regard to the enormous  effort to be done by civilization to move the whole economy from the BAU to SD scenarios, which  requires enormous investments throughout decades to mitigate future climate changes and adapt  civilization to the changes already in course. Download the full article here. Climate Change Risk assessment for sustainable project Biofuel and Biomass production Sustainable financial Sustainability management and reports Publications