CRUSUS An Educational, Research and Business Consulting Network oriented to Sustainability BIOFUEL AND BIOMASS PRODUCTION Come Back Climate Change Risk assessment for sustainable project Biofuel and Biomass production Sustainable financial Sustainability management and reports The 2010 - 2020 World Outlook for Biofuels - Case Studies for Biodiesel and bioethanol   Wilson Jordão Filho  09.01.2010    Biofuels now play a critical role in meeting global fuel  demand. Experts think that prices of oil and gas would be  about 15% higher in case of no world biofuel production.  Global biofuel demand is expected to increase in the  coming years. In the European Commission’s view recommendation for  the use of biofuels will: (1) improve energy supply security,  (2) reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and (3) boost rural  incomes and employment. However, the main traditional sources of feedstocks for  biofuels may be dramatically affected in their economy  depending on advances of biotechnology making  commercially viable the second and third generation of  biofuels, which will disregard food crops used by the first  generation.  The worldwide claims against energy crops from sugar cane, soybean, sunflower,  rapeseed, and palm are impressive as they impact on price of foods (sugar, grains,  cooking oils, etc.). They were responsible for the researches for alternative sources for  biofuels now been highlighted, especially the cellulosic ethanol and algae biofuel. Second  generation biofuel technologies based on cellulosic materials or microalgae for conversion  into diesel, gasoline or kerosene, are expected to become feasible in the next decade.  The international biofuel market is still at an early and very dynamic stage. Biodiesel and  bioethanol produced from agricultural crops using existing methods cannot sustainably  replace fossil-based transport fuels in large scale. There is no surface area of agricultural  land for that in the planet. However either microalgae or cellulose biomass seems to be  the only renewable biofuel sources having potential to replace fossil fuels in large scale.  Most productive oil crops supporting the first generation of biofuels, such as jatropha and  palm oil for biodiesel and sugarcane for bioethanol, seem not competitive to face these  ongoing sources.  Vanguard biotechnology is expected to support well succeeded realizations on this field  putting energy crops on a very odd situation in the next decades. Conversion technologies  for producing biofuels from biomass resources such as algae ponds, forest materials,  agricultural residues and urban wastes are under development and most have not yet  been demonstrated commercially. The fact that biofuels reduces lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions in a great extent make  them part of the greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction policies being now worldwide  discussed. Global emissions reduction legislation is setting progressively more stringent  limits and transition to forthcoming Euro standards, and more recently trends to fix upper  limits in the range of 120g/km drive greater use of biofuels.  Decisions on the type of biofuel and the degree of blending with gasoline or petro diesel  also influence the extent to which automotive fuel systems require modification, and the  type of materials required to contain these new fuels. It is currently accepted that most  vehicles can operate with 15% to 20% ethanol blended in gasoline, and 10% biodiesel  blended in petro diesel without requiring modifications in engines. Flex fuel engines are  able to deal with different moistures of fuels. So, trends are to increase these limits  depending on availability of future supply from biofuels which are connected to the  advanced technologies of the second generation of biofuels under way.  Scenarios envisaged by OEDC and IEA forecast global biofuels output will reach 1.75  million barrels a day in 2012. The IEA projects increasing tightness in the market for  petroleum and sees OPEC spare capacity decline to minimal levels by 2010.  Nevertheless, in any case according to IEA (2009 report) the role of biofuels on the energy  framework in the global strategy for a low carbon economy (GHG abatement to 450 ppm  in 2030) will be relatively small as compared to other sources (renewable energy and  improving efficiency on processes for instance).    Download the full report here.